Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.
Here are the projections. In March, most participants expected rates to remain at the current level through 2023. Now, most participants expect around two rates hikes in 2023.
|GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1|
|June 2021||6.8 to 7.3||2.8 to 3.8||2.0 to 2.5|
|Mar 2021||5.8 to 6.6||3.0 to 3.8||2.0 to 2.5|
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was revised up slightly for 2021.
|Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2|
|June 2021||4.4 to 4.8||3.5 to 4.0||3.2 to 3.8|
|Mar 2021||4.2 to 4.7||3.6 to 4.0||3.2 to 3.8|
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of April 2021, PCE inflation was up 3.6% from April 2020. There was some base effect (since PCE inflation declined last year in the early months of the pandemic), but there was a clear pickup in inflation.
The projections for inflation were revised up and the FOMC sees inflation solidly above target in 2021.
|Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1|
|June 2021||3.1 to 3.5||1.9 to 2.3||2.0 to 2.2|
|Mar 2021||2.2 to 2.4||1.8 to 2.1||2.0 to 2.2|
PCE core inflation was up 3.1% in April year-over-year.
Projections for core inflation were revised up.
|Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1|
|June 2021||2.9 to 3.1||1.9 to 2.3||2.0 to 2.2|
|Mar 2021||2.0 to 2.3||1.9 to 2.1||2.0 to 2.2|