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Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for April; Highest Annual Home Price Increase on Record

Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for April today. According to Black Knight, 4.66% of mortgage were delinquent in April, down from 5.02% of mortgages in March, and down from 6.45% in April 2020. Black Knight also reported that 0.29% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.40% a year ago.

This gives a total of 4.95% delinquent or in foreclosure.

Press Release: Black Knight: Persistent Constraints in For-Sale Inventory Drive Home Prices Up a Record-Breaking 14.8% Annually in April, Making Housing Least Affordable Since Late 2018

Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records datasets. As constraints in residential for-sale inventory persist, this month’s report looks at how recent and aggressive home price gains are impacting housing affordability. According to Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske, a dwindling inventory of homes for sale is pushing home price growth rates to previously unseen levels.

Home prices grew at 14.8% on an annual basis in April,” said Graboske. “That’s the highest annual home price growth rate we’ve ever seen – and Black Knight’s been tracking the metric for almost 30 years now. Single-family homes saw the greatest gains, with prices up 15.6% from last April, also an all-time high, while condo prices are up 10%. Driving this growth are two key elements: historically low interest rates and – more acutely – the lack of available for-sale inventory. The total number of active listings was down 60% from the 2017 to 2019 average for April. It’s not getting any better, either. Data from our Collateral Analytics group showed there was two months’ worth of single-family inventory nationwide in March, the lowest share on record and trending downward. In fact, there were 26% fewer newly listed properties in April as compared to pre-pandemic seasonal levels.
emphasis added

BKFS Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph on delinquencies from Black Knight:

• The national delinquency rate fell to 4.66% in April, just 0.5% above its pre-Great Recession average and 1.5% above its pre-pandemic level

• That said, the overall delinquency rate has been improving at a much faster rate than later stage delinquencies

• At their respective current rates of improvement, overall delinquencies would normalize by the end of 2021, but 90+ day delinquencies would take roughly three years to normalize

• That scenario is unlikely, however – 90-day delinquencies will reach an inflection point later this year as forbearance plans expire and many homeowners return to making mortgage payments

• As of the end of April, there are still 1.8M such serious delinquencies, 1.3M more than prior to the pandemic

BKFSAnd on existing home inventory from Black Knight:

• The number of active for-sale listings was down 53% in April from the same time last year and 60% off the 2017-2019 average for April, for a deficit of nearly 750,000 available homes for sale

• Black Knight’s Collateral Analytics group found just two months’ worth of single-family inventory nationwide in March, the lowest supply on record and trending downward

• While new listings in April were up 33% year-over-year, that was from a pandemic stricken April 2020, when listing volumes had fallen off significantly

• There were 26% fewer newly listed properties in April as compared to pre-pandemic seasonal levels, roughly on par with the 26-29% deficits seen over the first three months of the year

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

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